Surprising Election Results

I've been following the elections in Nepal closely, and am immensely surprised by the election results. The communist Maoist party has taken over half of the 215 seats in the assembly, and is competing against other parties, as well as the current monarchy. Those observing the course of the Maoist-Monarchy conflict preceding the election predicted much violence and bloodshed, as well as Nepalese reluctance to vote in favor of the Maoists. Instead, while there has been some isolated violent events, there has been no massive bloodshed, nor has there been a victory on the side of the monarchy. The Nepalese have become increasingly dissatisfied with the monarchy and interim government; however, Maoist ideology has not been appealing either. Which is why it was surprising when the Maoists took the lead recently.

In reference to Prof. Nexon's recent lecture on Democratic Peace, I wonder how this new government and constitution will present itself and what implications it may have on Nepalese foreign relations. The Maoists' ideology is derived from their admiration of Mao ZeDong, the Chinese communist leader. Their ultimate goal is to establish a communist state. However, their leader, Prachanda, has claimed that while this is the ultimate goal, the means to the end will be a capitalist system and a "republic." I'm not entirely sure how that would progress, but there is the obvious question (assuming Democratic Peace holds true to some extent) of conflict between Nepal and other states. The Maoists have condemned the Tibetan protests against China because of China's obvious communist ties and foundations. It may be that the Maoists have no other choice for the present and are engaging in some sort of balancing act; however, this alarming ideology of establishing communism seems to be a bit of a regression. I recognize, looking at the situation objectively, that perhaps democracy is not the best form of government for some states. Some states have functioned on communism (although it is often a messy and brutal affair), and perhaps ideological preaching has no place in this argument. However, if the Maoists hope to one day establish a communist state, there will no doubt be "growing pains" in the extreme sense. Prachanda may advocate democracy, but how much of that is realistic? Examination at past Maoist actions have revealed only violence and coercion. True, the fall of the monarchy may pave the way for democracy and a new Nepal. But the consequences of a Maoist "constitution" and state must be closely examined and followed.